Report
Patrick Artus

What will happen if households remain cautious after the crisis?

How households will behave after the COVID crisis is the subject of much debate: will they consume at least a portion of the savings built up during the crisis, lead ing to a much lower household savings rate than before the crisis? Or will they remain cautious instead, fearing another crisis in the future or in response to the deterioration in public finances, and keep in the form of savings the forced savings accumulated since the start of 2020, resulting in a higher savings rate than that before the crisis? What if the second scenario is the right one and households remain cautious after the COVID crisis? The recovery in consumption would be limited, leading to a gradual economic recovery without inflationary pressure and with the underemployment taking quite a long time to correct; Interest rates would therefore remain low. If, at the same time, abundant household savings shift into riskier assets (equities, real estate, etc.), the prices of these assets would rise sharply. Consumption of a large share of the accumulated savings would not be conducive to rising asset prices. Curiously, it is caution among households that would lead to sharp rises in asset prices.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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