Report
Patrick Artus

What will happen if inflation expectations turn out to be completely wrong?

Financial markets continue to expect inflation to fall rapidly in 2023 and 2024 to just above 2% in 2024 in the United States and the euro zone. However, given the pressures in the oil market, the scarcity in other commodities (which will flare up again due to China’s growth recovery), faster wage growth in the euro zone and no prospect of a recession, the most likely scenario is one where inflation remains significantly higher in 2023 and 2024 than what is expected today. What will happen when financial markets’ inflation expectations adjust sharply upwards? Mainly , short- and long-term interest rate expectations will also adjust upwards, leading to a fall in asset prices (albeit possibly not major because real interest rates will change little) and a rise in risk premia (credit spreads, yield spreads between euro-zone countries).
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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