What will happen if the Federal Reserve normalises its monetary policy and the ECB remains in “fiscal dominance”?
The Federal Reserve is now face d with high inflation stemming from worrying developments (rising corporate profit margins), rapid job creation and an economy little affected by the war in Ukraine. In all likelihood , the Federal Reserve will normalise its monetary policy, at least partially. The ECB is faced with the consequences for the euro zone of the war in Ukraine: very sharp rise in commodity prices and high inflation, fall in growth due to the rise in commodity prices and supply problems, increase in fiscal deficits. Because the inflation does not result from domestic factors, growth has weakened and governments have to finance large fiscal deficits, the ECB cannot normalise its monetary policy. This growing asymmetry between US and euro-zone monetary policy is reflected by a further weakening of the euro and will help to soften the impact of the shock of the Ukraine war on the euro zone.