What will happen if the International Energy Agency is right?

For 2020, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts increases from 2019 of 1.3 million barrels per day in global demand for oil and 2 million barrels per day in global oil production (of which 1.3 million from the United States). If these forecasts are right, oil (Brent) prices could fall to 40 dollars per barrel in 2020, which would have clear effects on oil-importing countries: A further sharp fall in headline inflation (towards 0.8% in the United States and -0.2% in the euro zone); Significant growth in household demand on the back of higher real wages. There would also obviously be: Major economic problems in oil-producing countries; Major financial problems for shale oil produc ers in the United States.