What will happen when the employment rate stabilises?
We compare the situations of the United States, Brazil, the United Kingdom, the euro zone, India, China and Japan. We note that in all these countries, to varying degrees, growth is due more to growth in employment (the employment rate) than in the past, and less to growth in labour productivity than in the past. This means that potential growth is more dependent on the ability to increase the employment rate, and less dependent on technological progress. The problem is that the employment rate cannot keep rising, particularly in countries where it is already very high. In countries where the employment rate will stabilise, growth will be limited to the sum of growth in the working-age population and productivity gains. This sum is very low in Brazil, the United Kingdom and the euro zone.