Report
Patrick Artus

What will happen when the latest policy experiment fails?

Since the early 2000s, OECD countries have implemented stimulatory economic policies with the aim of boosting demand, which has been weakened by an income distribution skewed against wage earners, and potential growth, which has been weakened by the effect of crises on capital accumulation. These policies have successively consisted in: Private sector debt, in particular household debt; Public debt; Helicopter money or central bank monetisation of fiscal deficits (public income transfers). This latest experiment with stimulatory economic policy will fail, because of the resulting financial instability (asset price bubbles, search for safe haven assets). What will happen next? Either policymakers will have to settle for “non-stimulated” growth; Or it will be necessary to switch to an entirely different equilibrium: lower required return on equity leading to faster wage increases, with growth driven by household labour incomes.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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