Report
Joseph Lavorgna

What Will it Take for The Fed to Pivot?

The futures market is predicting a 3.00% fed funds rate by March 2023. This is 200 basis points above the higher end of its current range. But this does not fully reflect the totality of the Fed’s expected actions because quantitative tightening (QT) begins i n mid-June. Based on our projections, the Fed is on track to shrink its balance sheet by $900 bn over the next nine months. Beyond a sharp and unexpected collapse in inflation, which is unlikely at present, what will it take for the Fed to pivot from its hawkish stance?
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Joseph Lavorgna

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