Report
Patrick Artus

What will population ageing in China change for the rest of the world?

Population ageing is now going to be rapid and drastic in China, leading to a very significant decline in China’s potential growth, from 6% in 2010, 4% currently to 2.5% in 2030, and a visible decline in global potential growth. What are the likely consequences of this trend for the rest of the world? A very marked weakening of growth in Chinese domestic demand, and therefore in exports to China, with a substantial effect on global demand (Chinese imports currently account for 12% of global imports); As Chinese pensioners are dissaving, a shift to an external deficit for China. It will therefore sell its external assets, which will drive up long-term interest rates in the rest of the world. In other words, the global equilibrium long-term interest rate will be higher due to a fall in the global savings rate (China's savings currently account for 27% of global savings); Given China's very significant weight in global commodity consumption, a fall in commodity prices .
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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