What will really be different?

OECD countries are hit by three drastic shocks one after the other: the COVID crisis, the war in Ukraine and the energy transition. It is important to try to understand what will really be different, after these three shocks, and what will not really be different. There will be increasing scarcity: commodities, transport, labour . Indeed, the three shocks are giv ing rise to new scarcities. This is bringing back inflation and all its consequences (for monetary policy, purchasing power, the balance of power between wage earners and companies, etc.). There will be huge investment needs (energy transition, development of industries of the future, housing), which will require production to be distributed differently between investment and consumption, which can be characterised as frugality. There will be very strong pressure on public finances, given high public debt ratios, significant needs for public spending and higher long-term interest rates. Higher potential growth would be very helpful but is also very uncertain. Skills shortages, already huge , will get worse, due to the huge shift in the structure of jobs. Despite countries’ desire for strategic autonomy (in energy, important goods, technology, etc.), globalisation is not in retreat , because the economic cost of deglobalisation would be too high. Increasing heterogeneity among emerging countries, depending on whether they are exporters or importers of commodities, whether they have sufficient savings to finance the necessary investment, whether or not they have large external debt.