What will stem the rise in asset prices if no longer monetary policy?
In the past, monetary policy was countercyclical in OECD countries : expansionary during recessions and early in expansion periods, and restrictive in the second half of expansion periods. The shift to a restrictive monetary policy after a few years of expansion stopped asset prices from rising and caused them to fall (in 1990, 2000, 2007-2008). But since the subprime crisis, monetary policy in OECD countries has no longer been countercyclical: it remains expansionary even in the second half of expansion periods. So what may stem the rise in asset prices? An “exogenous” crisis, not linked to the economic or financial cycle (geopolitical crisis, public health crisis); A fall in demand for an asset once its price becomes too high. Are there signs today that demand for equities or real estate has begun to fall? The answer is clearly no.