What would be an "apocalypse" nowadays?
The world’s growing debt can create fears of a very serious financial crisis, an "apocalypse". But what could trigger such a crisis nowadays ? In OECD countries, the private sector debt ratio has fallen markedly in the last ten years; a financial crisis would therefore be: Either a public debt crisis, in the event of a steep rise in interest rates; Or an external debt crisis for the United States, if the dollar lost its reserve currency status; In China, the debt ratio is very high and rising sharply; but there is financial repression: the interest rate is much lower than nominal growth. This is made possible by the presence of capital controls and makes it possible to have a very high debt. A debt crisis could therefore be triggered by an economic policy error, which would lead to a situation where interest rates rise sharply relative to the level of the growth rate (for example, lifting of capital controls); In emerging countries other than China and oil-exporting countries, debt is also increasing rapidly and is linked to capital inflows and to the accumulation of external debt. A debt crisis could be triggered by large capital outflows, i.e. if the rest of the world refused to hold emerging countries’ debt, and this has already happened several times in the past