What would happen if we returned to the “normal world”?
In the “normal” world, real risk-free interest rates are more or less at the level of long-term real growth. This is in contrast to the contemporary world, where real interest rates are much lower than real growth. Central banks could decide to return to the “normal” world due to inflationary pressures, or to stop the excessive rise in asset prices. If they made this choice: A shift to much less expansionary fiscal policies would be needed to ensure public debt sustainability and prevent a debt crisis; There would be a drastic fall in asset prices (equities, real estate) due to the return of the concept of fundamental value; There would be a sharp fall in corporate investment, housing investment and investment in the energy transition; Savers would return heavily to bonds at the expense of risky assets and money market assets, which could make it difficult for companies to raise financing; And, as these effects are cumulative, there would clearly be a recession, hence obviously the low probability that central banks would decide to return to the normal world.