What would happen in the event of a third lockdown in the euro zone in the second quarter of 2021?

Under a worst-case scenario for the euro zone, the dynamics of the COVID pandemic require a third lockdown in the second quarter of 2021 after the lockdowns in the second and fourth quarters of 2020. If a third lockdown can be averted, euro-zone growth in 2021 could be 5.5%. But with a third lockdown, it may be only 2%, which would lead to a shortfall of GDP compared to what it should have been at the end of 2021 of 3.5%, resulting in many irreversible effects on : Employment, skills and structural unemployment; Companies’ investment capacity; Bankruptcies; And therefore potential growth. Such a large loss of GDP would lead to such a deterioration in the economy that defensive economic policies would no longer suffice to prevent it.