What would happen under a “managed” no-deal Brexit?

It seems that a “managed” no-deal Brexit is becoming the most likely scenario . The most destructive immediate consequences of Brexit (for transport, the situation of residents, the recognition of standards) would be averted under this scenario , but the United Kingdom would leave the European Union and the customs union. So what effects would this have ? Is it certain that trade between the United Kingdom and the EU and investment in the United Kingdom would fall? To be sure, there would be tariffs and customs controls, but their effects could be offset by a sharp depreciation of pound sterling ; L ike after the 2016 referendum, the main consequence may then be a sharp depreciation of the pound, leading to an increase in import prices, a deterioration in the terms of trade and a fall in household consumption.