Report
Patrick Artus

What would the ECB and euro-zone countries’ governments do if euro-zone growth fell sharply?

As a result of rising oil prices, mounting uncertainty and recruitment difficulties, it is possible that euro-zone growth will fall sharply. What could be the economic policy response in that case? The ECB could obviously not cut its interest rates; The only possibility would be an increase in fiscal deficits financed by money creation, to prevent a marked rise in long-term interest rates due to the high level of public debt; The euro zone would therefore - like Japan - enter a process of a simultaneous and continuous increase in the public debt and in the size of the central bank's balance sheet. We would expect this development to lead to a financial crisis (rejection of money and currency crisis), but we must recognise that it has not yet taken place in Japan.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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