Report
Patrick Artus

What would the ECB do if inflation did return in the euro zone?

Core inflation currently remains low in the euro zone, but it is possible that it may rise in the future, as wages and unit labour costs have accelerated and are increasing by more than 2% per year: it would require euro-zone companies to regain some pricing power. We assume that core inflation returns to around 2% in the euro zone: would the ECB dare to raise its interest rates? Its mandate would lead it to do so, but would it run the risk of causing: A significant downturn in real estate prices; Capital losses for insurers and banks; An appreciation of the euro, when euro-zone industry is already suffering; A loss of fiscal solvency for Italy (and France) and the resulting risk of a crisis. It is difficult to know in advance the real degree to which a zero-interest-rate policy is irreversible when it has been conducted for a long period of time.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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