Report
Patrick Artus

What would the introduction of retail central bank cryptocurrencies change?

We look at the effects of introducing retail central bank cryptocurrencies (CBDCs, i.e. held by non-bank economic agents). These effects stem from the substitution of these cryptocurrencies for bank deposits in the assets of economic agents (nothing happens if they merely replace banknotes). What may happen at equilibrium if banks have fewer deposits in their liabilities? If banks have excess reserves at the central bank, they will merely reduce those excess reserves by the amount of the loss of deposits, and nothing will happen. Nothing will happen either if the central bank cryptocurrency simply replace s banknotes. If banks do not have excess reserves, the loss of deposits will result in a contraction in their assets. There are then several possibilities: Banks sell some of the bonds they hold to the central bank and they do not reduce their outstanding loans; Banks issue bonds, which at equilibrium are held by the central bank, to replace the deposits; Banks reduce their outstanding loans and economic agents raise more financing by issuing bonds, which at equilibrium are held by the central bank. Altogether: In some cases (substitution of CBDCs for banknotes, reduction in excess reserves), nothing happens; A portion of seigniorage is transferred from banks to the central bank; When one consolidates the government and the central bank, this combined economic agent is financed more in monetary form and less by issuing bonds; If banks can sell bonds they hold or issue bonds, there is no disintermediation of the financing of the economy; if they cannot, there is a reduction in credit and disintermediation.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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