Report
Patrick Artus

What would trigger a real correction in asset prices?

We know that there are two very different regimes: One where the risk-free long-term interest rate plus the risk premium corresponding to the asset class analysed is lower than the long-term nominal growth rate; in this regime, actuarial calculations can no longer be made, and the value of an asset (equities, real estate, companies) can be arbitrarily high; Another where the risk-free long-term interest rate plus the risk premium is higher than the growth rate: this makes it possible to assess the fundamental value of the assets. If the rise in long-term interest rates leads to a shift from the first regime to the second, then asset prices may fall. This would happen if 10-year interest rates rose to: Above 2% in the United States; Above 1.25% in the euro zone. The war in Ukraine has pushed long-term interest rates down and away from the danger zone of a change of regime .
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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