When commenting on short-term economic developments, we should not forget the Chinese recession

There is currently an economic slowdown in OECD countries, a downturn in commodity prices and therefore potentially a slowdown in inflation and global trade. But it should not be forgotten that as a result of the COVID wave, China is in recession in the second quarter of 2022, leading to a slowdown in global trade and in demand for commodities. In the second half of 2022, the Chinese government will try to meet its growth targets and therefore implement highly stimulatory monetary and fiscal policies. We should therefore expect strong growth in the second half of the year in China, which will most probably lead to a recovery in foreign trade and a rise in commodity prices, leading to a real risk of rising inflation, which would obviously encourage central banks to be more restrictive.