What The Trade Deal Means for Vietnam and Asia

From being a poster child of how to win in a trade war, on 3 April, Vietnam’s growth model was on life support. The US slapped 46% reciprocal tariff rate on the country – amongst the highest in the world. Vietnam is the most trade exposed country in Asia – exports are 84% of GDP and US shipment made up a staggering 30% of GDP in 2024.  Vietnamese exports to the US are not just by Vietnamese firms but also are foreign direct investments in Vietnam. Thus, the prohibitive level would not only impact Vietnam’s export market but also domestic demand. Thus, Vietnam has been the most motivated countr...

United States in celebratory mood

Rosy headline jobs data to keep Fed on pause, but not all good under the hood

On the surface, the June employment report was very strong. Payrolls were much higher than expected and there was a significant improvement in the unemployment rate. The rosier headline numbers will help to push out the expectations of a Fed cut, but under the hood, this print overall confirms are view that the softening in the labor market continues. There was very little hiring outside of the business cycle-agnostic sectors of healthcare and government. The decrease in the unemployment rate is likely a result of limited layoffs and the decrease in immigrants from the labor force. The size ...