Report
Patrick Artus

When will Donald Trump question his economic policy?

In th e United States we are already seeing, or will in all likelihood see in 2019: A slowdown in growth, due to the return to full employment and the decline in housing investment and in purchases of durable goods, despite the very expansionary fiscal policy; A marked increase in the external deficit, especially with China, despite protectionism, due to the expansionary fiscal policy conducted at full employment; A fall in share prices, despite the rapid earnings growth, due to the multiple causes of concern: protectionism, geopolitical tensions. Donald Trump could regret: Having conducted an expansionary fiscal policy at full employment (which is pointless in terms of boosting growth, and which is worsening the US external deficit); Having imposed pointless tariffs, as the y affect products that are no longer made in the United States; Maintaining a climate of international tensions and uncertainty (will there be tariffs or new sanctions?) that help push down share prices.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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