When will Donald Trump question his economic policy?
In th e United States we are already seeing, or will in all likelihood see in 2019: A slowdown in growth, due to the return to full employment and the decline in housing investment and in purchases of durable goods, despite the very expansionary fiscal policy; A marked increase in the external deficit, especially with China, despite protectionism, due to the expansionary fiscal policy conducted at full employment; A fall in share prices, despite the rapid earnings growth, due to the multiple causes of concern: protectionism, geopolitical tensions. Donald Trump could regret: Having conducted an expansionary fiscal policy at full employment (which is pointless in terms of boosting growth, and which is worsening the US external deficit); Having imposed pointless tariffs, as the y affect products that are no longer made in the United States; Maintaining a climate of international tensions and uncertainty (will there be tariffs or new sanctions?) that help push down share prices.