Where will long-term interest rates go if growth slows and equity markets retreat?
The rise in long-term interest rates since the summer of 2018 in the United States and the euro zone can be attributed to: Optimism regarding growth, especially in the United States; Inflation due to the rise in the oil price; The attractiveness of the equity market for investors, especially in the United States; but this factor has been vanishing in the most recent period; The prospect of monetary policy normalisation. But long-term interest rates will no doubt decline as a consequence of the downward correction of growth expectations, of share prices, and of the outlook for central bank interest rates. We have possibly just seen the peak in long-term interest rates in the cycle.