Report
Which major euro-zone countries could be in trouble with their public finances?
We seek to determine whether one or more of the major euro-zone countries (Germany, France, Spain and Italy) could have problems financing their fiscal deficits in the future. We look at these countries’ potential growth, real long-term interest rates and primary fiscal deficits (excluding interest on debt). The countries with the greatest gap between their primary fiscal deficit in 2023 or 2024 and what it should be to ensure public debt sustainability ( primary fiscal deficit lower than the product of the public debt ratio and the gap between the real long-term interest rate and potential growth) are France and Italy. Investors believe, as shown by long-term yield spreads against Germany, that the most fragile country is Italy. However, the required reduction in the primary fiscal deficit is greater in France than in Italy.
Provider
Natixis
Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.
Other Reports from Natixis
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.