Report
Patrick Artus

Who will bear the cost of the highly expansionary monetary policy?

The highly expansionary monetary policy implemented in OECD countries aims to ensure borrower solvency. It is leading to a very rapid increase in the money supply. Who will pay the cost of this policy? The excess money supply will spontaneously drive up prices of risky assets (equities, real estate, etc.) sharply, particularly once risk aversion declines. Young people will then be taxed if they have to buy assets (to prepare for retirement, to buy a home) at abnormally high prices; If governments decide to prevent asset prices from rising through highly active macroprudential policies, then the excess liquidity cannot be freely invested in equities and real estate and it can simply be invested in bonds. Long-term interest rates would then fall very sharply, i.e. savers in bonds (who are rather older and high-income) would be taxed. Preventing bubbles in risky assets through macroprudential policies therefore leads to shifting the cost of this monetary policy from the young to the "old".
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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