Report
Patrick Artus

Why are interest rates low in OECD countries and high in many emerging countries?

Even though excess savings are a global phenomenon, interest rates today are very low in OECD countries and high in many emerging countries. This is obviously a major problem for emerging countries, as it deprives them of the ability that OECD countries enjoy to finance very large fiscal deficits without difficulty . What accounts for this difference between OECD and emerging countries? The risk of capital outflows: when emerging countries conduct an expansionary monetary policy, this triggers significant capital outflows; The currency risk linked to these capital outflows, which results in higher interest rates; Inflationary risk, due to the imported inflation that results from exchange rate depreciation. However, the situation may be cyclical: capital outflows lead to exchange rate depreciation and imported inflation, driving up interest rates. But the rise in interest rates then attracts capital in flows, leading the exchange rate to appreciate again and pushing inflation back down .
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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