Report
Patrick Artus

Why are long-term interest rates so low?

Despite the rise in inflation and expected inflation and despite the announcement of a reduction in bond purchases by the Federal Reserve, US and euro-zone long-term interest rates remain very low. How can this be explained? Possible explanations are: Investors expect a small hike in central banks’ short-term interest rates. It is the stock of bonds held by central banks and not the flow of bonds purchased that has an impact on long-term interest rates. In the euro zone, the ECB will continue to buy bonds. The international reserve currency role of the dollar and the euro leads to large purchases of bonds by non-residents. The relevant explanations for the low long-term interest rates seem to be the second and the fourth in the United States , and the first and the third in the euro zone. It should also be remembered that for a long time, there has been no link between long-term interest rates and future growth, so it is unlikely that a prospect of weak growth has the effect of driving down long-term interest rates.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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