Report
Patrick Artus

Why are stock market indices and long-term interest rates both rising now?

In the fourth quarter of 2023, the financial market dynamics was straightforward: long-term interest rates fell, due in part to the sharp fall in expected short-term interest rates, and stock market indices rose. However, since the start of 2024, the dynamic s has been much more complicated to explain: expected short-term and long-term interest rates have risen, but at the same time stock market indices have continued to rise, without any improvement in the growth outlook. How can this surprising configuration be explained? We can imagine that it is due to: A very favourable outlook for corporate earnings; Still abundant liquidity; Major purchases of shares by non-residents; Major share buybacks. The most likely explanations seem to be: The positive earnings outlook; Abundant liquidity; Share buybacks.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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