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Why do forecasters from international organisations not believe that China is at the root of the global growth problem?
International organisations (the OECD as recently as September 2019) attribute the weakening of global trade to the trade war between the United States and China, Brexit, sometimes the oil price risk, and the tensions between Japan and South Korea, but not to the sudden change in China’s economic model. Yet it is clearly China’s rapid transformation into a service economy - which began well before its trade war with the United States - and the resulting contraction in domestic demand for industrial products and therefore in Chinese imports, that explains the lion's share of the slowdown in global trade and in global growth.
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Natixis
Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.
Patrick Artus
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