Euribor 2027年12月限りのロング（または OIS 2年先1年フォワードのレシーバー）を推奨

Gulf countries’ huge reserves explain their resilience to the huge shock

Since the effective closure of Strait of Hormuz, oil tanker traffic through this gateway has fallen sharply, creating not only a global shortage but also export halt for gulf countries. Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain are most impacted with over 90% exposure to the Strait. Saudi Arabia and UAE are more shielded thanks to pipelines rerouting to Yanbu by the Red Sea and Fujairah by the Oman Bay.After exports are blocked, gulf countries have subsequently shut in their energy infrastructure as storage facilities are running out. Bahrain and Qatar have closed virtually all the production lines and Kuwait...

March Employment Preview

We expect payrolls to rise 45 k in March , which would represent a solid rebound from the dismal February employment report. The first two payroll prints for this year have deviated from expectations with January’s figures surprising to the upside and February’s surprising to the downside, and for March, the range of estimates is wide (+151k to -16k). A print of 45k would be roughly in line with the breakeven pace of job growth, given changes in the population. We expect a slight rise in the unemployment rate to a rounded 4.5% (from 4.44%). A few one-off factors that weighed on February’s p...