Report
Patrick Artus

Why has inflation declined as a trend in the euro zone?

When we look at core inflation in the euro zone, we see that it is on average: 2.7% per year in the 1990s; 1.8% per year in the 2000s before the subprime crisis; 1.2% per year in the 2010s prior to the COVID crisis; 1% per year today on average. What accounts for this trend decline in inflation, which is now putting monetary policy in difficulty? Not a monetary mechanism: the money supply has rather accelerated over this period; Not higher productivity gains, because they are on the contrary declining; Increased competition from emerging countries; Employees' loss of bargaining power. When we look at wage formation over these different periods, we see a very significant decline over time in the effect of the unemployment rate on wage growth in the euro zone.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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