Report
Patrick Artus

Why is euro-zone growth starting to fall at a time when the unemployment rate is still higher than 8%?

We are now clearly seeing a slowdown in growth in the euro zone, while the unemployment rate is still higher than 8%. There are two possible interpretations of this slowdown at a high unemployment level: It is due to the fact that the euro zone’s structural unemployment rate is 8%, and therefore that growth is slowing down because it can no longer exceed potential growth . It is due to the fact that demand for goods and services is starting to fall: saturation of needs for durable goods, rising inflation and falling real wage s , loss of confidence and reaction to the high level of uncertainty. However, interest rates are very low, fiscal policy is once again becoming more expansionary, corporate earnings are very high, and the household savings rate remains low. All things considered, it seems that the return of unemployment to the level of structural unemployment for the time being is having a greater impact than the slowdown in demand.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

Other Reports from Natixis
Alicia Garcia Herrero ... (+2)
  • Alicia Garcia Herrero
  • Gary NG
Alicia Garcia Herrero ... (+2)
  • Alicia Garcia Herrero
  • Gary NG
Alicia Garcia Herrero ... (+3)
  • Alicia Garcia Herrero
  • Haoxin MU
  • Jianwei Xu

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch