Report
Patrick Artus

Why is finance becoming "simplistic" in OECD countries?

Until the coronavirus crisis, we saw the following in OECD countries: Households had lending capacity, which is normal (households are net lenders); But also, which is new, companies also had lending capacity (their earnings exceeded their investment needs); The current-account balance of the OECD as a whole was more or less balanced. This shows the rudimentary nature of finance, which consists in using the private sector’s lending capacity to finance the only economic agent that has a borrowing requirement: the public sector (the government in a broad sense). The origin of this equilibrium where finance is "simplistic" is clear: the skewing of income distribution in favour of profits and at the expense of wages has eliminated companies’ borrowing requirement and, while weakening demand because of the small wage increases, has made it necessary to permanently run up fiscal deficits. A transfer of borrowing requirements from companies to the government definitely does not lead to a more efficient allocation of savings. While the coronavirus crisis has changed this equilibrium in finance, the precautionary behaviour in the wake of the crisis will lead to a return to this equilibrium .
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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