Why is the French/German (OAT-Bund) long-term yield spread not reacting?
When comparing France and Germany, we see very significant differences regarding: Public debt and fiscal solvency; Foreign trade and external solvency; The “structural quality” of the economy (skills, weight of industry, employment rate, etc.). This should normally lead to a widening of the long-term yield spread between France and Germany , but this is not the case . Why ? Possible explanations are: Because, despite this relative deterioration in France’s situation, it is not sufficient to give rise to a default risk on the public debt; Because demand for euro-denominated public debt is strong, and investors need to invest in French debt and cannot exclude France from their portfolios; Because investors believe that the ECB would not accept a crisis on French public debt.