Report
Patrick Artus

Why is the French/German (OAT-Bund) long-term yield spread not reacting?

When comparing France and Germany, we see very significant differences regarding: Public debt and fiscal solvency; Foreign trade and external solvency; The “structural quality” of the economy (skills, weight of industry, employment rate, etc.). This should normally lead to a widening of the long-term yield spread between France and Germany , but this is not the case . Why ? Possible explanations are: Because, despite this relative deterioration in France’s situation, it is not sufficient to give rise to a default risk on the public debt; Because demand for euro-denominated public debt is strong, and investors need to invest in French debt and cannot exclude France from their portfolios; Because investors believe that the ECB would not accept a crisis on French public debt.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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