Report
Patrick Artus

Why is the yield spread between France and Germany still very low?

The 10-year yield spread between France and Germany is currently very low, below 5 5 basis points. This small spread between France’s and Germany’s long-term interest rates may seem surprising, given the difference in public debt levels and fiscal deficits between France and Germany. Why is the 10-year yield spread between France and Germany so low? Perhaps due to: The credibility of the prospects for lower fiscal deficits in France, despite the sluggish growth; The deterioration in Germany’s creditworthiness; Strong demand for French government bonds from domestic and non-resident investors; France’s low real long-term interest rate, which is lower than its potential growth (as long as this is the case, France’s public debt is sustainable); The reduction in Germany's fiscal deficit, which means that investors have to switch their purchases to French government bonds; The fact that a French default is unimaginable.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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