Report
Patrick Artus

Why might population ageing not be inflationary?

In theory, population ageing is inflationary. Because pensioners are non- producing consumers and, moreover, dissave, it is expected to give rise to a situation of excess demand for goods and services. But Japan, where population ageing has been pronounced and began early, offers no evidence of it lead ing to higher inflation. What mechanisms might prevent population ageing from being inflationary? It is conceivable that: Companies respond to ageing by increasing labour productivity; Pensioners continue to save a lot; If not all countries age simultaneously, the countries where ageing is greater (faster) have an external deficit with other countries and no t inflation; Similarly, the countries with faster ageing use immigration. In Japan, the absence of inflation results from the fact that wages have stopped growing, but also from the high savings rate among older Japanese people.
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Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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