Report
Patrick Artus

Why the choice of the “speculation economy”?

OECD countries have become mired in the “speculation economy”, given the sharp rise and high variability in asset prices (equities, real estate, cryptocurrencies, etc.), large-scale speculative positions in commodities, etc. This speculation economy is both unjust (wealth inequality rises sharply) and inefficient (savings are sterilised in speculative asset purchases). So why tolerate this shift to the speculation economy? It stems primarily from the shift to perpetually highly expansionary monetary policies. So central banks have chose n to implement the monetary policies that have led to the speculation economy: To enable governments to conduct highly expansionary fiscal policies (given the combination of the desire to increase government intervention in the economy and the desire to reduce the tax burden); Due to disinflation and the choice to maintain inflation targets despite this disinflation; To correct, through expansionary monetary policies, the slowdown in growth caused by unresolved structural problems (employability among the population, weak corporate modernisation); Because of the emergence of a vicious circle: the speculation economy leads to financial crises; in response to the financial crises, fiscal and monetary policies become more expansionary, which strengthens the speculation economy. In order to avoid falling into the speculation economy, OECD countries would therefore have had to: Balance their budgets on average; Shift from an inflation target to a financial stability target when inflation became permanently low; Carry out policies to correct their structural problems (skills, corporate modernisation, etc.) in order to prevent the fall in potential growth.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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