Why the situation will be tough after the COVID crisis

We see four reasons why the economic and social situation is likely to be tough after the COVID crisis (we look at the United States, the euro zone and France). As companies are, on average, in difficulty, one should expect stagnation in wages, an increase in offshoring and an increased search for monopoly situations. As some economic sectors face a lasting crisis, jobs will have to be reallocated to growing sectors. As this is difficult to achieve, structural unemployment will rise. The asset price bubbles that the ongoing monetary expansion will inflate will lead to a sharp rise in wealth inequality. The slowdown in potential growth after the crisis will lead to weak growth in global income, increasing the number of conflicts over income distribution, between countries (tax competition, protectionism) and between employees and companies.