Why US growth is likely to remain fairly strong in 2024
If we take the four quarters of 2023 together, US growth will probably be around 3%. Many forecasters are expecting a sharp slowdown in US growth in 2024, and even a brief recession. We do not agree with this scenario, for several reasons: US fiscal policy will remain highly expansionary in 2024; Corporate investment will continue to be underpinned by public support measures (IRA, Chips Act); Residential construction is already picking up, given the shift to low real mortgage rates , if they are calculated on the basis of real estate prices; Household consumption will be boosted by growth in real disposable income (real wages).