Will energy prices be a trigger for inflation in the Euro area?

We analyze in this report the recent impact of oil, natural gas and electricity prices on inflation in the euro area through the energy component of the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). We forecast the contribution of the energy component to inflation for the following two years based on oil and gas price forecast s by Natixis. According to our mode l, the contribution of the energy component to the headline inflation in the euro area will remain low and with a maximum of 0. 5 p ercentage points.