Will France be able to avoid a macroeconomic adjustment?
The French economy’s main problem is that its production costs are abnormally high relative to the sophistication of its production. The reforms being implemented may improve this situation: The reforms of education and vocational training may lift production up the value chain; The cuts to corporate tax and to tax on capital income may lead to additional investment and lift productivity; The labour market reforms and the reduction in corporate social contributions will reduce labour costs. But France’s excess labour cost relative to its level of product sophistication is very large : the risk is that the reforms might not be enough to correct it , and that France will not be able to avoid a macroeconomic adjustment, i.e. an internal devaluation with a reduction in wages.