Will investment and consumption have enough momentum to sustain growth when the economic policy stimulus is withdrawn?
We look at the United States, the euro zone and China. The question is whether the economy will have sufficient spontaneous momentum to sustain growth once the fiscal and monetary stimulus is withdrawn . The United States and the euro zone are now entering a period of fiscal deficit reduction and reduced central bank balance sheet expansion. Will the private sector be able to drive the economy without stimulus? When we look at investment and consumer behaviour, we see healthy momentum in the recovery in housing investment and, in the United States, in corporate investment, but still consumer caution and , in the euro zone, weak corporate investment. China offers a clear example: in the first half of 2021, growth slowed markedly, which drove the government to switch to a more expansionary monetary policy and to boost investment by state-owned enterprises and local authorities (by issuing more special purpose bonds); the private sector alone was not able to sustain the economy at the desired growth rate .