Will massive and lasting government intervention increase the efficiency of economies?
It is clear that the COVID crisis is going to lead governments to increase their intervention in the economy in the medium term, beyond the immediate crisis response. Plans to invest in the energy transition, industry and reshoring, healthcare, training, innovation, networks, infrastructure, etc. are being announced everywhere. The goal is to improve the efficiency o f the economy and long-term growth. But is it certain that this objective will be achieved? There are of course the two usual schools of thought here: Those who believe that a greater role for the government is needed to plug gaps left by the private sector and internalise externalities; “Liberals” who believe that the government allocates investment (savings) less well than the private sector. The difficulties are well known: Not all public spending and investment has a positive effect on productivity and employment. Policymakers must therefore be able to select spending that is efficient; How the government interven t ion is managed is important: top-down, with strategic choices made by the government; or bottom-up, with the government supporting private sector initiatives; Inevitably, a greater role for the government will lead to an increase in the tax burden, with the resulting possible distortions.