Will the crisis fuel populism in Europe?

A year ago, we outlined how the discourse of populist parties had aligned with the concerns of public opinion. Eurobarometer surveys suggested that political expressions of populism had emerged as credible alternatives to mainstream parties, which were facing a growing loss of trust. However, this gain in credibility did not translate into an increase in votes for these parties in the last European elections. Since then, the economic environment has changed significantly. The health crisis has forced governments to implement restriction measures on non-essential activities, causing an unprecedented economic crisis. As a consequence, t he crisis has also altered the public ’s perception of ruling mainstream parties and their responses. In this report, we examine the potential impact of the crisis on populism in Europe. Our analysis finds that populist voters can be characteri z ed by low trust in personal relationships and in democratic institutions as well as low satisfaction with the national econom ic situation . The health and economic crisis , via the actions of national governments in response to it, has exacerbated this pre-existing sense of disenchantment and disdain . Similarly, economic dissatisfaction , a driver of the populist vote, may increase on the back of the rise in unemployment. In the medium to long term, these two factors could lead , should the economic situation not improve significantly, to a surge in populism, whether on the political right or left .