Report
Patrick Artus

Will the ECB be able to exit quantitative easing?

The ECB has announced that it will keep its current asset purchase programme (PEPP) in place until March 2022. Given how long it will take to eliminate underemployment, some financial market participants believe that this programme will be extended. But one could go further and think that the ECB will find it very difficult to exit quantitative easing: Inflation is going to remain low in the euro zone, well below 2% in the case of core inflation; Given the new public spending needs, fiscal deficits will remain high and the ECB will have to continue to help governments (and the European Commission) borrow at a low cost; As the COVID crisis is changing the nature of jobs, the employment rate is likely to be dented for a long time and the ECB will want to contribute to its recovery ; A debt crisis in Italy, whose potential growth is very low, will continue to have to be staved off .
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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