Will the euro zone be more attractive for investors than the United States in 2019?
In 2018, all forms of capital (short- term , equities , bonds) have been attracted to the United States, mainly to the detriment of the euro zone and emerging countries. But, in the United States, the return to full employment will lead to a significant growth slowdown in 2019. This slowdown will probably be amplified as corporate and housing investment react to it . Will this slowdown in US growth lead capital to return from the United States to the euro zone, causing the two regions ’ equity markets for example to converge, whereas in 2018 the US market has been significantly outperforming the European market ? This would require the euro zone to be more attractive for investors than the United States in 2019. And yet: Potential growth is significantly higher in the United States than in the euro zone and the euro zone’s structural unemployment rate is significantly higher; Corporate profitability will remain high in the United States even though it is no longer rising; Some euro-zone countries (Italy) could face severe economic problems.