Will the euro-zone countries have the means to achieve their ambitions after the crisis?
It seems that this time around, European governments are serious when they talk about conducting the necessary policies from a long-term perspective after the coronavirus crisis: increasing public spending on healthcare, education and training; assisting the onshoring of strategic industries; investing in the energy transition. But will governments have the means to conduct these long-term policies? It will take time for the level of GDP (income) to return to normal once the crisis is over, which means that cyclical fiscal deficits will remain high; P ermanent monetisation of fiscal deficits by the ECB is inconceivable, as it would generate intolerable financial instability; The mutualisation of fiscal deficits at the euro-zone level would prevent the various countries’ borrowing capacit ies and situations from diverging, but the mutualised public debt would still be debt. An optimistic view amounts to saying that: Pressure from public opinion will prompt governments to carry out this new spending, and therefore that ; First, governments will find a way to reduce less strategic public spending, although this would be very difficult at a time of underemployment; Second, financial markets and investors will understand that the additional public debt will finance efficient investment projects and spending, which will increase potential growth.