Will the Federal Reserve be able to cut interest rates in 2024?
The latest US inflation figures (in February, 3.2% year-on-year for headline inflation, 3.8% year-on-year for inflation excluding energy and food, 3.9% year-on-year for services excluding shelter [the 'supercore']) cast doubt on whether the Federal Reserve will be able to cut interest rates in 2024, at least as much as financial markets anticipate. The acceleration in price rises since September 2023 (for services prices), and the stability of headline inflation since June 2023: Are not the result of a faster rise in unit labour costs; Are due to the rise in corporate profit margins. So this is a case of "profitflation". This rise in core inflation to almost 4% makes it highly unlikely that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the near future.