Report
Patrick Artus

Will the Federal Reserve fall into the same trap as the ECB and the Bank of Japan?

When inflation is lower than the inflation target, central banks lower interest rates to try to restore inflation: this is probably what the Federal Reserve is going to do now. But it is then important to avoid falling into the trap that the ECB and the Bank of Japan have fallen into. If the functioning of labour markets and goods and services markets are such that inflation remains lower than 2%, even when interest rates are zero, the central bank will permanently keep interest rates at zero, and this policy becomes irreversible because of the accumulation of debt (credit, bonds) at zero interest rates. A rise in interest rates would then have disastrous effects, on issuers (highly indebted) and on investors (due to capital losses on bond portfolios).
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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