Will the investment required for the energy transition boost or curb growth?
Available estimates show that 2% to 3% of global GDP will have to be invested every year (in renewable energies, building renovation, etc.) in order to finance the energy transition. Assuming this additional investment is made, what effect will it have on global growth? If it leads to additional savings thanks to a rise in the real interest rate, there will be additional capital accumulation and potential production; But if global savings do not change, the investment in the energy transition will replace other investment (there will be a full crowding-out). The world’s potential production may then fall if the capital related to the energy transition is less efficient than the capital corresponding to the investment forgone. The effect of investment in the energy transition on the world’s potential GDP therefore depends heavily on the sensitivity of the global savings rate to the real interest rate: if it is high, the additional investment will increase potential GDP.