Will the shift in the structure of demand from services to goods correct?
Since the start of the COVID crisis, there has been a major shift in the structure of demand from services to goods in OECD countries (due to working from home, e-commerce, the energy transition). This shift is the main cause of the pressure on commodity, transport and semiconductor markets. It is therefore important to know whether this shift in the structure of demand is permanent or transitory. If it is explained by one-off purchases of goods (computers, household durable goods) linked for example to the introduction of working from home, the weight of services in demand will then rise again, which will eliminate the various bottlenecks. But if it is explained by lasting changes in behaviour (for example, purchases of goods linked to the energy transition), then these bottlenecks, and the resulting inflation, will take much longer to resolve.